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Wednesday, September 15

08:30 Welcoming Remarks

08:40 Session 1:  Interpretation of Verification Measures (session chair: Laurie Wilson)

     1.1 Ian Jolliffe: Estimation of uncertainty in verification measures (Invited)
     1.2 Tressa L. Fowler:  Use of cross-validation in forecast verification
     1.3 Pertti Nurmi and Sigbritt Näsman:  Experimentation with the LEPS score: Comparison of local forecast errors in probability and measurement space

10:00 Break

10:30 Session 1 cont’d

     1.4 Caren Marzban:  A comment on the ROC curve and the area under it as performance measures
     1.5 William Briggs, Matt Pocernich and David Ruppert:  Incorporating measurement error in skill assessment
     1.6 Ian Jolliffe and David Stephenson:  Incompatibility of equitability and propriety for the Brier Score
     1.7 Charles K. Kluepfel and Momchil Georgiev:  The use of equitable skill scores in the U.S. National Weather Service

11:50 Lunch

13:30 Session 2:  Verification of Extremes (session chair: Harold Brooks)

     2.1 David B. Stephenson:  Verification of rare extreme events (Invited)
     2.2 Martin Göber:  We are surprisingly skillful yet they call us liars: On accuracy versus skill in the weather forecast production process.
     2.3 Phil Chadwick:  A probability of event occurrence approach to performance estimate
     2.4 Matt Pocernich:  Verification package for “R”

15:10 Break

15:40 Session 3:  Probability Distributions (session chair: Anna Ghelli)

     3.1 Tilmann Gneiting:  Scoring rules for probabilistic forecasts of continuous weather variables (Invited)
     3.2 John Bjønar Bremnes:  Methods for verifying quantile forecasts
     3.3 Jason Nachamkin:  Composite-based verification of warm-season precipitation forecasts from a mesoscale model

17:00 Sessions end for the day ---

Thursday, September 16

08:30 Session 4:  Spatial and object-oriented verification (session chair: Frederic Atger)

     4.1 Barbara Brown and Beth Ebert:  Spatial and object-oriented verification (Invited)
     4.2 Michael Baldwin:  Object identification techniques for object-oriented verification
     4.3 Randy Bullock, Barbara Brown, Chris David, and Mike Chapman:  Recent progress on object-oriented verification
     4.4 Thomas C.M. Lee, Eric Gilleland, Barbara Brown and Randy Bullock:  Verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts using Baddeley’s delta metric

10:10 Break

10:40 Session 4 cont'd

     4.5 Barbara Brown, Chris David, Randy Bullock, Mike Chapman, and Kevin Manning: Diagnostic verification measures associated with object-oriented verification approaches
     4.6 Caren Marzban:  Statistical cluster analysis for verification of spatial fields
     4.7 Ben Bouallegue, A. Alvera-Azcarate and J.M. Beckers:  An error decomposition method: Application to Mediterranean SST simulations assessment
     4.8 V. Mandal, U.K. De and B.K. Basu:  An event-oriented approach to the verification of summer monsoon rainfall over West Bengal, India

12:00 Lunch

13:30 Session 5:  Model verification and scale separation (session chair: Clive Wilson)

     5.1 Barbara Casati:  Scale separation in verification measures (Invited)
     5.2 Anna Ghelli:  On the use of high-resolution network observations to verify precipitation forecasts
     5.3 Ulrich Damrath:  Verification against precipitation observations of a high density network – what did we learn?
     5.4 Andrew F. Loughe, Stephen S. Weygandt, Jennifer L. Mahoney and Stanley G. Benjamin: Scale sensitivities in model precipitation skill scores

15:10 Break

15:40 Session 5 cont'd

     5.5 Zuohao Cao, Pierre Pellerin and Harold Ritchie:  Verification of mesoscale modeling for the severe rainfall event over Southern Ontario in May 2000
     5.6 Dawit Gezmu:  Evaluation of GFS model in predicting the daily rainfall over Ethiopia: A case study
     5.7 Eric Gilleland:  Optimizing METAR network design to remove potential bias in verification of cloud ceiling height and visibility forecasts
     5.8 Matthew Jin:  US NWS gridded marine verification: Derivation of “true” wind and wave fields at NDFD grids using a geostatistical approach

17:00 Sessions end for the day ---

Friday, September 17

08:30 Session 6:  Forecast value and user-oriented verification (session chair: Anna Ghelli)

     6.1 Jeff Lazo: Assessment of forecast value (Invited)
     6.2 Jennifer L. Mahoney, Barbara Brown, Joan E. Hart and Mike Kay:  Defining observation fields for verifying convective forecasts that are aligned with user interpretation of the forecast
     6.3 Charles K. Kluepfel:  TAF verification in the U.S. National Weather Service

09:50 Break

10:20 Session 7:  Operational verification and applications (session chair: Ulrich Damrath)

     7.1 Pertti Nurmi:  Design of operational verification systems (Invited)
     7.2 Nelson Shum and Jeff Thatcher: Verification of Canadian public weather forecasts by an automated system

11:20 Demonstration session

     a. Canadian National Verification System (Nelson Shum)
     b. Use of verification routines in R (Matt Pocernich)

12:00 Lunch

13:30 Session 7 cont'd

     7.3 Michael P. Kay:  The design and evaluation of a measure of forecast consistency for the collaborative convective forecast product
     7.4 Matthew C. Sittel and Robert J. Craig:  A graphical technique for diagnosing significant error tendencies in meteorological forecast fields
     7.5 Brenton W. MacAloney II:  Methodology of the U.S. National Weather Service warning product verification
     7.6 E. Astling, G. Dodd, and R.-S. Sheu:  Methodology for verification of mesoscale model predictions and analyses with atmospheric boundary layer profilers

14:50 Break

15:20 Session 8: Discussion and wrap-up (session chair: Barbara Brown)

16:30 End of workshop ---

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