Julie Arblaster

Group: Climate Variability and Change

Julie Arblaster
Julie Arblaster

Contact Details:

  • Fax: 03 9669 4660
  • Phone: 03 9669 4036
  • Address:
    Bureau of Meteorology
    GPO Box 1289
    Melbourne, 3001
    Australia

Personal Data:



Education:

  • Macquarie University, Bachelor of Technology in Atmospheric Science (Hons)
  • University of Colorado, MSc
  • University of Melbourne, PhD

Interests and Research:

  • Climate Change
  • Coupled Models
  • Annular Modes
  • ENSO

  • Publications:

    Submitted and in press (last updated 7 May 2014)

  • Chung C.T.Y., S.B. Power, J.M. Arblaster, H.A. Rashid, G.L. Roff, 2014: Nonlinear precipitation response to El NiƱo and global warming in the Indo-Pacific, Climate Dynamics, 42(7-8), 1837-1856.
  • Hendon H.H., E.P. Lim, J.M. Arblaster, D. Anderson, 2014: Causes and predictability of the record wet east australian spring 2010, Climate Dynamics, 42(5-6), 1155-1174.
  • Tebaldi, C. and J.M. Arblaster, 2014: Pattern scaling: a review of its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations, Climatic Change, 122, 3, 459-471
  • 2013

  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster and D.R. Marsh, 2013: Could a future "Grand Solar Minimum" like the Maunder minimum stop global warming? Geophys. Res. Letts., 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50361.
  • Eyring V., J.M. Arblaster, I. Cionni, J. Sedlacek, J. Perlwitz, P.J. Young, S. Bekki, D. Brgmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W.J. Collins, G. Faluvegi, K.-D. Gottschaldt, L.W. Horowitz, D.E. Kinnison, J.-F. Lamarque, D.R. Marsh, D. Saint-Martin, D.T. Shindell, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, S. Watanabe, 2013, Long-term changes in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 18, 5029-5060, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50316
  • Meehl G.A., A. Hu, J.M. Arblaster, J. Fasullo, K. Trenberth, 2013: Externally forced and internally generated decadal clmiate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, J. Climate, 26, 7298-7310, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1
  • Santer, B.D., et al. 2013, Identifying Human Influences on Atmospheric Temperature, PNAS , 110(1), 26-33
  • Meehl G.A., W.M. Washington, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, H. Teng, J.E. Kay, A. Gettelman, D.M. Lawrence, B.M. Sanderson, W.G. Strand, 2013: Climate change projections in CESM1(CAM5), J. Climate, in press
  • 2012

  • Arblaster, J.M. and L.V. Alexander, 2012, The impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on maximum temperature extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20702, doi:10.1029/2012GL053409
  • Meehl G.A. and J.M. Arblaster, 2012: Relating the strength of the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) to the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20716, doi:10.1029/2012GL053386
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster and G. Branstator, 2012: Mechanisms contributing to the warming hole and the consequent U.S. east-west differential of heat extremes, J. Climate, in press
  • Meehl, G.A. A. Hu, C. Tebaldi, J.M. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, H. Teng, B. Sanderson, T. Ault, W.G. Strand and J.B. White III, 2012: Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea level rise , Nature Climate Change, 2, 576-580, doi:10.1038/nclimate1529
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, J. Caron, H. Annamalai, M. Jochum, A. Chakraborty, and R. Murtugudde, 2012: Monsoon regimes and processes in CCSM4. Part 1: The Asian-Australian monsoon. J. Climate, 25, 2583-2608
  • Cook, K.H., G.A. Meehl, and J.M. Arblaster, 2012: Monsoon regimes and processes in CCSM4. Part 2: The African and American monsoons. J. Climate, 25, 2609-2621
  • Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, H. Teng, C. Tebaldi, W.G. Strand, and J.B. White III, 2012: Climate system response to external forcings and climate change projections in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 3661-3683.
  • 2011

  • Tebaldi, C., J.M. Arblaster and R. Knutti, 2011: Mapping model agreement on future climate projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23701, doi:10.1029/2011GL049863
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, J.T. Fasullo, A. Hu and K.E. Trenberth, 2011: Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1229
  • Meehl, G. A., and J. M. Arblaster, 2011: Decadal variability of Asian-Australian monsoon-ENSO-TBO relationships. J. Climate, 24, 4925-4940, DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4015.1
  • Arblaster J.M., G.A. Meehl and D.J. Karoly, 2011: Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L02701, doi:10.1029/2010GL045384.
  • 2010

  • Cai W., T. Cowan, J.M. Arblaster and S. Wijffels, 2010: On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L17709, doi:10.1029/2010GL044399
  • 2009

  • Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster, K. Matthes, F. Sassi and H. van Loon, 2009: Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing, Science, 325, 1114, DOI: 10.1126/science.1172872
  • Meehl G.A. and J.M. Arblaster, 2009: A lagged warm event-like response to peaks in solar forcing in the Pacific regio n, J. Climate, 22, 3647-3660, DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2619.1
  • Alexander L.V. and J.M. Arblaster, 2009: Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 4 17-435, doi:10.1002/joc.1730
  • 2008

  • Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster, G.W. Branstator and H. van Loon, 2008: A coupled air-sea response mechanism to solar forcing in the Pacific region, J. Climate, 21, 2883-2897
  • Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster and W.D. Collins, 2008: Effects of black carbon aerosols on the Indian monsoon, J. Climate, 21, 2869-2882
  • 2007

  • Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster and C. Tebaldi, 2007: Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to changes in temperature extremes over the U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19709, doi:10.1029/2007GL030948
  • 2006

  • Arblaster J.M. 2006: Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (spring 2005): a wet and warm season across much of Australia, Aust. Met. Mag., 55, 231-244
  • Tebaldi, C., K. Hayhoe, J.M. Arblaster, G.A. Meehl, 2006: Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and futre changes in extreme events, Climatic Change, 79, 185-211
  • Arblaster J.M. and G.A. Meehl, 2006: Contributions of external forcings to Southern Annular Mode trends, J. Climate, 19, 2896-2905*
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, D.M. Lawrence, A. Seth, E.K. Schneider, B.P. Kirtman and D. Min, 2006: Monsoon regimes in the CCSM3 J. Climate, 19, 2482-2495*
  • Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, B.D. Santer, W.D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, D.M. Lawrence, H. Teng, L.E. Buja and W.G. Strand Jr, 2006: Climate change projections for the 21st century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J. Climate, 19, 2597-2616*
  • Timbal B., J.M. Arblaster, S.B. Power, 2006: Attribution of the late 20th century rainfall decline in South-West Australia, J Climate, 19, 2046-2065.*
  • Timbal B., J.M. Arblaster, 2006: Land cover change as an additional forcing to explain the rainfall decline in the south west of Australia, Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, doi:10.1029/2005GL025361
  • 2005

  • Church J.A., N.J. White and J.M. Arblaster, 2005: Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content, Nature, 438, 74-77 doi:10.1038/nature04237
  • Meehl G.A., W.M. Washington, W.D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, L.E. Buja, W.G. Strand and H. Teng, 2005: How much more global warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769-1772.***
  • Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster, C.Tebaldi, 2005: Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18719, doi:10.1029/2005GL023680
  • 2004

  • Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C.M. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigley and C. Tebaldi, 2004: Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate. J. Climate, 17, 3721-3727.
  • Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, J.M. Arblaster and A. Hu, 2004: Factors affecting climate sensitivity in global coupled models . J. Climate, 17, 1584-1596.
  • van Loon H., G.A. Meehl and J.M. Arblaster, 2004: A decadal solar effect in the tropics in July-August. J. Atmos. and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 66, 1767-1778.
  • Braganza, K., D.J. Karoly and J.M. Arblaster, 2004: Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13217, doi:10.1029/2004GL019998
  • Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, J.M. Arblaster and A. Hu, 2004: Factors affecting climate sensitivity in global coupled models . J. Climate, 17, 1584-1596.
  • Santer B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle and W. Bruggemann, 2004: Response to comments on "Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent to recent tropopause height changes. Science , 301, 479-483.**
  • 2003

  • Santer B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle and W. Bruggemann, 2003: Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent to recent tropopause height changes. Science , 301, 479-483.**
  • Meehl, G.A. and J.M. Arblaster, 2003: Mechanisms for projected future changes in south Asian monsoon precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 21, 659-675.
  • Karoly D.J., K. Braganza, P.A Stott, J.M. Arblaster, G.A. Meehl, A.J. Broccoli, K.W. Dixon, 2003: Detection of a Human Influence on North American Climate. Science, 302, 1200-1203.**
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster and J. Loschnigg, 2003: Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamical Processes in the Tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans and the TBO. J. Climate, 16, 2138-2158.
  • Loschnigg, J., G.A. Meehl, P.J. Webster, J.M. Arblaster, G.P. Compo, 2003: The Asian Monsoon, the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode in the NCAR CSM. J. Climate, 16, 1617-1642.
  • Meehl, G.A. W.M. Washington, T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Arblaster and A. Dai, 2003: Solar and Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Response in the Twentieth Century. J. Climate, 16, 426-444.
  • 2002

  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, 2002: The Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation and Asian-Australian Monsoon Rainfall.J. Climate, 15, 722-744.
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, 2002: Indian Monsoon GCM Sensitivity Experiments Testing Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation Transition Conditions.J. Climate, 15, 923-944.
  • Arblaster, J.M., G.A. Meehl and A.M. Moore, 2002: Interdecadal modulation of Australian rainfall. Climate Dynamics, 18, 519-531.
  • 2001

  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, 2001: The Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation and Indian Monsoon Rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1731-1734.
  • Meehl, G.A., P.R. Gent, J.M. Arblaster, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, E.C. Brady and A. Craig, 2001: Factors that affect the amplitude of El Nino in global coupled models . Climate Dynamics, 17, 515-527.
  • Dai, A., G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, T.M.L. Wigley and J.M. Arblaster, 2001: Ensemble Simulation of Twenty-First Century Climate Changes: Business As Usual versus CO2 Stabilization . Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 82, 2377-2388.
  • Meehl, G.A., W.D. Collins, B.A. Boville, J.T. Kiehl, T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Arblaster, 2000: Response of the NCAR Climate System Model to Increased CO2 and the Role of Physical Processes. J. Climate., 13, 1879-1898.
  • Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, J.M. Arblaster, T.W. Bettge, and W.G. Strand Jr., 2000: Anthropogenic Forcing and Decadal Climate Variability in Sensitivity Experiments of Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Climate. J. Climate., 13, 3728-3744.
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster and W.G. Strand Jr., 2000: Sea-ice effects on climate model sensitivity and low frequency variability. Climate Dynamics, 16, 257-271.
  • W.M. Washington, J.W. Weatherly, G.A. Meehl, A.J. Semtner Jr., T.W. Bettge, A.P. Craig, W.G. Strand Jr., J.M. Arblaster, V.B. Wayland, R. James, Y. Zhang, 2000: Parallel Climate Model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Climate Dynamics, 16, 755-774.
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, 1998: The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Climate., 11, 1356-1385.

  • *This download/article is courtesy of the American Meterological Society, who owns sole rights to it. The download/article is subject to AMS copyright laws and statutes. For more information, please visit the Allen Press/AMS Journals Online website at AMS Journals Online.

    **This download/article is courtesy of the American Geophysical Union, who owns sole rights to it. The download/article is subject to AGU copyright laws and statutes. For more information, please visit the AGU publications Web Site.

    ***This download/article is courtesy of the Science Magazine, who owns sole rights to it. The download/article is subject to Science copyright laws and statutes. For more information, please visit the Science Magazine Web Site.


    Positions and Committees:

    Please note that the Disclaimers for the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO apply also to this site.
    index.php last modified Wednesday, 07th May, 2014 @ 04:34UTC | Site Map | www.cawcr.gov.au | © 2014