- B.S. Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, 1981
- M.S. Meteorology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, 1984
- Ph.D. Meteorology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, 1987
Research Program Leader of the CAWCR Weather and Environmental Prediction (WEP) Program
Interests and Research:
Validation of satellite precipitation estimates:
Rainfall products from operational satellite precipitation algorithms are easily obtainable via the web or FTP, and are being used for many diverse meteorological, climate, hydrological, agricultural, and other applications. It is therefore important to have an idea of their accuracy and expected error characteristics. The Australian gridded rain gauge analysis is being used to intercompare and validate several operational and semi-operational satellite precipitation algorithms on daily and longer time scales. These include several products from NASA GSFC, NOAA NESDIS, NOAA CPC, Naval Research Laboratory, UC Irvine, and JAXA. A few NWP models are included for comparison. The validation results are updated on a daily basis, and results are displayed on the SatRainVal web site.
In order to improve the accuracy of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the Bureau's numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, I developed an interactive verification tool called RAINVAL that produces maps, time series, and statistics to show the skill of the QPFs when compared to the rainfall analysis and to each other. It is currently used to monitor the daily rainfall forecasts over Australia from a large number of local and overseas NWP models, and to assess new model versions.
I have worked on spatial verification using two complementary approaches. The object-based Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) method uses pattern matching of forecast and observed rain areas to estimate errors in forecast rain location, magnitude, and pattern (Ebert and McBride 2000). This strategy can diagnose systematic errors related to weaknesses in model dynamics, physical parameterisations, surface topography, etc. The forecast for the event inself can be classified as a "hit", "miss", etc., using this object-based technique. The IDL code can be downloaded by clicking here.
Neighborhood (a.k.a. fuzzy) verification approaches reward closeness by relaxing the requirement for exact matches between forecasts and observations within a spatial and/or temporal neighborhood surrounding the forecast and observed points. Computing verification results for varying neighborhood sizes reveals which scales have useful forecast skill. Ebert (2008) describes a framework for neighborhood verification that incorporates several neighborhood verification methods appearing in the literature over recent years. The IDL code can be downloaded by clicking here.
The WWRP has conducted several Forecast Demonstration Projects to demonstrate the skill and utility of advanced nowcasting systems. I have been part of the verification effort for the Sydney 2000 and Beijing 2008 Olympics FDPs, and for the latter I developed a real-time nowcast verification system that was used by forecasters and scientists. In additional to the "usual" visual and statistical verification, it included some advanced spatial verification techniques.
I am a member of the WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) established in 2003. One of our activities is to maintain a Forecast Verification web page that describes standard and advanced verification methods, answers FAQs, links to verification tools and test datasets, and tries to keep an updated reference list. The JWGFVR also runs a successful series of WMO verification tutorials and workshops, the latest of which was held in 2014 in New Delhi.
The Bureau runs a poor man's ensemble called Operational Consensus Forecasts (OCF) in which output from several operational NWP models is bias-corrected and combined to give deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. This approach is cheap and efficient, and gives forecasts that are more accurate, on average, than any of the component models. OCF forecasts provide input to the Bureau's Next Generation Forecast and Warning System and the Water And The Land (WATL) rainfall site.
Observations-based nowcasts also benefit from quantitative uncertainty estimates. I collaborate with a team at NOAA/NESDIS working on ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP), which combines satellite rainfall estimates from multiple sensors to generate deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of heavy rain in landfalling tropical cyclones. I am also part of the team developing the Thunderstorm Environment Strike Probability Algorithm (THESPA) for enhancing radar-based thunderstorm nowcasts.
Positions and Committees:
- WWRP High Impact Weather Project Task Team, 2013-2014
- Australian National Fire Danger Rating Science Sub-group, 2010-present
- WGNE/WGCM Climate Metrics Panel, 2009-present
- AMS Committee on Probability and Statistics, 2007-2009
- WWRP Beijing 2008 FDP Team, 2005-2009
- GIFS-TIGGE Working Group, 2005-2011
- GPM GV Steering Committee, 2003-2010
- WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Verification (JWGV), 2003-2014; co-chair 2008-2014
- International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG), 2002-present
- WWRP Sydney 2000 FDP Verification Team, 2001-2002
- Science Advisory Team, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), 1998-2001
- Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Committee of the Australian Academy of Science, 1997-2000
- Ashrit, R. and E. Ebert, 2014: Verification of monsoon rainfall forecasts over India using the Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) method. Wea. Forecasting, submitted.
- Ebert, E.E., 2014: Verification of NWP in the tropics. Submitted to A. Mitra (ed), NCMRWF Silver Jubilee Volume, Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences.
- Azorin-Molina, C., S. Tijm; E.E. Ebert, S.M. Vicente-Serrano, M.J. Estrela, 2013: Numerical study of non-forecasted sea breeze thunderstorm in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. Neighborhood verification of HIRLAM and HARMONIE precipitation forecasts. Atmos. Res., 139, 101-115. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.01.010.
- Brown, B., E. Ebert, T. Fowler, E. Gilleland, P. Kucera and L. Wilson, 2013: Verification methods for tropical cyclone forecasts. WMO Technical Document WWRP 2013-7, 89 pp.
- Chen, Y., E.E. Ebert, K.J.E. Walsh, and N.E. Davidson, 2013: Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 precipitation estimates of tropical cyclone rainfall using PACRAIN data. J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres, 118, 1-13.
- Chen, Y., E.E. Ebert, K.J.E. Walsh, and N.E. Davidson, 2013: Evaluation of TRMM 3B42 daily precipitation estimates of tropical cyclone rainfall over Australia. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 11,966-11,978.
- Dai, J., M.J. Manton, S.T. Siems, and E.E. Ebert, 2013: Estimation of daily winter precipitation in Snowy Mountains of south eastern Australia. J. Hydrometeorology, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-081.1.
- Ebert, E., L. Wilson, A. Weigel, M. Mittermaier, P. Nurmi, P. Gill, M. Goeber, S. Joslyn, B. Brown, T. Fowler, and A. Watkins, 2013: Progress and challenges in forecast verification. Meteorol. Appl., DOI: 10.1002/met.1392.
- Johnson, C.D., S.T. Siems, M.J. Manton and E.E. Ebert, 2013: An evaluation of the precipitation forecasts of the Poor Man's Ensemble for wintertime rainfall across the southern portion of Australia. Austral. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J., 63, 315-324.
- Kucera, P.A., B. Ebert, F.J. Turk, V. Levizzani, D. Kirschbaum, F. Tapiador, P. Xian, A. Loew, M. Borsche, 2013: Precipitation from space: Advancing earth system science. Bull Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 94, 365-375.
- Engel, C.B. and E. E. Ebert, 2012: Gridded operational consensus forecasts of 2m temperature over Australia. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 301-322.
- Brown, B.G., E. Gilleland and E.E. Ebert, 2011: Forecasts of spatial fields. In I.T. Jolliffe and D.B. Stephenson (eds), Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science. 2nd ed., Wiley, pp. 95-117.
- De Maria, E.M.C., D.A. Rodriguez, E.E. Ebert, F. Su, and J.B. Valdes, 2011: Evaluation of mesoscale convective systems in South America using multiple satellite products and an object-based approach. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D08103, doi:10.1029/2010JD015157.
- Ebert, E.E., 2011: Radius of reliability: A distance metric for interpreting and verifying spatial probabilistic warnings. CAWCR Research Letters, 6, 4-10.
- Ebert, E.E., M. Turk, S.J. Kusselson, J. Yang, M. Seybold, P.R. Keehn, R.J. Kuligowski, 2011: Ensemble tropical rainfall potential (eTRaP) forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 213-224.
- Schuster, G., E.E. Ebert, M.A. Stevenson, R.J. Corner, C.A. Johansen, 2011: Application of satellite precipitation data to analyse and model relationships between Murray Valley encephalitis virus and rainfall in Western Australia. Int. J. Health Geographics, 10, doi:10.1186/1476-072X-10-8.
- Bougeault, P., Z. Toth, C. Bishop, B. Brown, D. Burridge, D.-H. Chen, B. Ebert, M. Fuentes, T. Hamill, K. Mylne, J. Nicolau, T. Paccagnella, Y.-Y. Park, D. Parsons, B. Raoult, D. Schuster, P. Silva Dias, R. Swinbank, Y. Takeuchi, W. Tennant, L. Wilson and S. Worley, 2010: The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 91, 1059-1072.
- Gilleland, E., D.A. Ahijevych, B.G. Brown and E.E. Ebert, 2010: Verifying forecasts spatially. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 91, 1365-1373.
- Ahijevych, D., E. Gilleland, B. Brown, and E. Ebert, 2009: Application of spatial verification methods to gridded precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1485-1497.
- Dance, S., E. Ebert and D. Scurrah, 2009: Thunderstorm strike probability nowcasting. J. Atmos. Oceanic. Tech., 27, 79-93.
- Ebert, E.E., 2009: Neighborhood verification of high resolution precipitation forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1498-1510.
- Ebert, E.E. and W.A. Gallus, 2009: Toward better understanding of the contiguous rain area (CRA) verification method. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1401-1415.
- Ebert, E.E., 2009: Fuzzy (neighborhood) verification of high resolution precipitation products. In Hossain, F. and M. Gebremichael (eds), Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology. Springer, pp.127-143.
- Gilleland, E., D. Ahijevych, B.G. Brown, B. Casati, and E.E. Ebert, 2009: Inter-comparison of spatial verification methods. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1416-1430.
- Turk, F.J., B.-J. Sohn, J.-J. Oh, E.E. Ebert, V. Levizzani, and E.A. Smith, 2009: Validating a rapid-update satellite precipitation analysis across telescoping space and time scales. Meteorol. Atm. Phys., 105, 99-108.
- Brown, B., and coauthors, 2008: Recommendations for the Verification and Intercomparison of QPFs and PQPFs from Operational NWP Models - Revision 2 October 2008. WMO/TD-No.1485 WWRP 2009-1.
- Casati, B., L.J. Wilson, D.B. Stephenson, P. Nurmi, A. Ghelli, M. Pocernich, U. Damrath, E.E. Ebert, B.G. Brown and S. Mason, 2008: Forecast verification: current status and future directions. Meteorol. Appl., 15, 3-18.
- Ebert, E.E., 2008: Fuzzy verification of high resolution gridded forecasts: A review and proposed framework. Meteorol. Appls., 15, 51-64.
- Gruber, A and V. Levizzani, Lead Authors, 2008: Assessment of Global Precipitation Products. WCRP Series Report No. 128 and WMO TD-No. 1430, 55 pp.
- Rossa, A., P. Nurmi, and E. Ebert, 2008: Overview of methods for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts. In Michaelides, S. (ed), Precipitation: Advances in Measurement, Estimation and Prediction, pp. 417-450.
- Turk, F.J., P.Arkin, E. Ebert and M. Sapiano, 2008: The First Workshop of the Program for the Evaluation of High Resolution Precipitation Products. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 89, 1911-1916.
- Engel, C. and E. Ebert, 2007: Performance of hourly operational consensus forecasts (OCFs) in the Australian region. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 1345-1359.
- Ebert, E.E., J. Janowiak and C. Kidd, 2007: Comparison of near real time precipitation estimates from satellite observations and numerical models. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 88, 47-64.
- Ebert, E.E., 2006: Methods for verifying satellite precipitation estimates. In Levizzani, V., P. Bauer and F.J. Turk (eds), Measuring Precipitation from Space. EURAINSAT and the Future. Advanced in Global Change Research 28, Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 345-356.
- Grams, J.S., W.A. Gallus, L.S. Wharton, S. Koch, A. Loughe, and E. E. Ebert, 2006: The use of a modified Ebert-McBride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 288-306.
- Ebert, E.E., S. Kusselson and M. Turk, 2005: Validation of NESDIS operational tropical rainfall potential (TRaP) forecasts for Australian tropical cyclones. Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 54, 121-135.
- Ebert, E., L.J. Wilson, B.G. Brown, P. Nurmi, H.E. Brooks, J. Bally, and M. Jaeneke, 2004: Verification of nowcasts from the WWRP Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 73-96.
- May, P.T., T. Keenan, R. Potts, R. Webb, A. Treloar, E. Spark, S. Lawrence, E. Ebert, J. Bally, J. Wilson, and P. Joe, 2004: The Sydney observing network during the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games Forecast Demonstration Project: Addressing forecast issues and nowcasting requirements. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 115-130.
- Pierce, C.E., E.E. Ebert, A. Seed, N. Fox, M. Sleigh, C.G. Collier, N. Donaldson, J. Wilson, R. Roberts and C. Mueller, 2004: The nowcasting of precipitation during Sydney 2000: An appraisal of the QPF algorithms. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 7-21.
- Wilson, J.W., E. Ebert, T. Saxen, C. Pierce, M. Sleigh, A. Seed, R. Roberts and C. Mueller, 2004: Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: Convective storm nowcasting. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 131-150.
- Ebert, E.E., U. Damrath, W. Wergen and M.E. Baldwin, 2003: The WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from operational numerical weather prediction models. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 84, 481-492.
- Keenan, T., P. Joe, J. Wilson, C. Collier, B. Golding, D. Burgess, P. May, C. Pierce, J. Bally, A. Crook, D. Sills, L. Berry, I. Bell, N. Fox, R. Pielke Jr., E. Ebert, M. Eilts, K. O'Loughlin, R. Webb, R. Carbone, K. Browning, R. Roberts, C. Mueller, 2002: The Sydney 2000 World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project: Overview and current status. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 84, 1041-1054.
- Ebert, E.E., 2001: Ability of a poor man's ensemble to predict the probability and distribution of precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2461-2480. See also Ebert, E.E., 2002: CORRIGENDUM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1661-1663.
- Ebert, E.E. and J.L. McBride, 2000: Verification of precipitation in weather systems: Determination of systematic errors. J. Hydrology, 239, 179-202.
- McBride, J.L. and E.E. Ebert, 2000: Verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts from operational numerical weather prediction models over Australia. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 103-121.
- Ebert, E.E. and Weymouth, G.T., 1999, Incorporating satellite observations of "no rain" in an Australian daily rainfall analysis, J. Appl. Meteor., 38, 44-56.
- Gruber, A., E.C. Barrett, E. Ebert, R.R. Ferraro, G. Huffman, S. Huntrakul, E. Rodgers and P. Xie, 1999: Results of the application of satellite techniques to the estimation of tropical rainfall. In Barrett, E.C. (ed), Estimating the Amount of Rainfall Associated with Tropical Cyclones using Satellite Techniques, WMO/TD No. 975, Rept. No. TCP-42, WMO, Geneva, 294 pp.
- Weymouth, G., Mills, G., Jones, D., Ebert, E. and Manton, M., 1999: A continental-scale daily rainfall analysis scheme, Aust. Met. Mag., 48, 169-179.
- Ebert, E.E. and M.J. Manton, 1998: Performance of satellite rainfall estimation algorithms during TOGA COARE. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 1537-1557.
- Weymouth, G., G.A. Mills, D. Jones, E.E. Ebert, and M.J. Manton, 1998: A continental-scale daily rainfall analysis system. Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 48, 169-179.
- Schramm, J.L., M.M. Holland, J.A. Curry and E.E. Ebert, 1997: Modeling the thermodynamics of a sea ice thickness distribution. Part I: Sensitivity to ice thickness resolution. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 23,079-23,092.
- Ebert, E.E., M.J. Manton, P.A. Arkin, R.J. Allan, G.E. Holpin, and A.J. Gruber, 1996: Results from the GPCP Algorithm Intercomparison Programme. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 77, 2875-2887.
- Curry, J.A., J.L. Schramm, M.C. Serreze and E.E. Ebert, 1995: Water vapor feedback over the Arctic Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 14,223-14,229.
- Curry, J.A., J.L. Schramm and E.E. Ebert, 1995: Sea ice-albedo climate feedback mechanism. J. Climate, 8, 240-247.
- Ebert, E.E. and J. Le Marshall, 1995: An evaluation of infrared satellite rainfall estimation techniques over Australia. Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 44, 177-190.
- Ebert, E.E., J.L. Schramm and J.A. Curry, 1995: Disposition of solar radiation in sea ice and the upper ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 15,965-15,975.
- Curry, J.A., E.E. Ebert and J.L. Schramm, 1993: Impact of clouds on the surface radiation balance of the Arctic Ocean. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 51, 197-217.
- Ebert, E.E. and J.A. Curry, 1993: An intermediate one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model for investigating ice-atmosphere interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 10,085-10,109.
- Curry, J.A. and E.E. Ebert, 1992: Annual cycle of radiation fluxes over the Arctic Ocean: Sensitivity to cloud optical properties. J. Climate, 5, 1267-1280.
- Ebert, E.E. and J.A. Curry, 1992: A parameterization of ice cloud optical properties for climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 97, 3831-3836.
- Ebert, E.E. and G.J. Holland, 1992: Observations of record cold cloud top temperatures in tropical cyclone Hilda (1990). Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2240-2251.
- Ebert, E.E., 1991: Pattern recognition analysis of polar clouds during summer and winter. Int. J. Remote Sensing, 13, 97-109.
- Curry, J.A. and E.E. Ebert, 1990: Sensitivity of the thickness of Arctic sea ice to the optical properties of clouds. Annals of Glaciology, 14, 43-46.
- Curry, J.A., F.G. Meyer, L.F. Radke, C.A. Brock, and E.E. Ebert, 1990: Occurrence and characteristics of lower tropospheric ice crystals in the Arctic. Int. J. Climatol., 10, 749-764.
- Ebert, E.E., 1989: Analysis of polar clouds from satellite imagery using pattern recognition with a statistical cloud analysis scheme. J. Appl. Meteor., 28, 382-399.
- Curry, J.A., G.F. Herman and E.E. Ebert, 1988: Mean and turbulence structure of the summertime Arctic cloudy boundary layer. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 114, 715-746.
- Ebert, E.E., U. Schumann and R.B. Stull, 1988: Nonlocal turbulent mixing in the convective boundary layer evaluated from large-eddy simulation. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 2178-2207.
- Eloranta, E.W., R. B. Stull and E. Ebert, 1988: Test of a calibration device for airborne Lyman-alpha hygrometers. J. Atmos. Ocean Tech., 6, 129-139.
- Ebert, E.E., 1987: A pattern recognition technique for distinguishing surface and cloud types in the polar regions. J. Clim. Appl. Meteor., 26, 1412-1427.