Andrew Dowdy

Andrew Dowdy
Andrew Dowdy

Contact Details:

  • Fax: 03 9669 4660
  • Phone: 03 9669 4722
  • Address:
    Andrew J. Dowdy
    Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St
    Docklands, 3008
    Australia

Personal Data:



Interests:

  • Extreme weather events and their modes of variability, forecasting, observations and projections:
    - bushfires (wildfires)
    - thunderstorms and lightning
    - extratropical and subtropical cyclones (including Australian east coast lows)
    - ocean waves and coastal processes
    - heavy rainfall
    - tropical cyclones (hurricanes, typhoons)

  • Publications:

    • Field RD, Spessa AC, Aziz NA, Camia A, Cantin A, Carr R, de Groot WJ, Dowdy AJ, Flannigan MD, Manomaiphiboon K, Pappenberger F, Tanpipat V and Wang X, 2015 (in press): Development of a global fire weather database for 1980-2012. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2, 6555-6597, doi:10.5194/nhessd-2-6555-2014.
    • Bates B, Chandler R and Dowdy AJ, 2015 (in press): Estimating trends and seasonality in Australian monthly lightning flash counts. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, doi:10.1002/2014JD023011.
    • Dowdy AJ, Grose MR, Timbal B, Moise A, Ekström M, Bhend J and Wilson L, 2015 (in press): Rainfall in Australia’s eastern seaboard: a review of confidence in projections based on observations and physical processes. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal (available here).
    • Grose MR, Bhend J, Argueso D, Ekström M, Dowdy AJ, Hoffmann P, Evans JP and Timbal B, 2015 (in press): Comparison of various climate change projections of eastern Australian rainfall. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal.
    • Hope P, Grose MR, Timbal B, Dowdy AJ, Bhend J, Katzfey JJ, Bedin T, Wilson L and Whetton PH, 2015 (in press): Seasonal and regional signature of the projected southern Australian rainfall reduction. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal.
    • Dowdy AJ, et al., 2015: East Coast Cluster Report, Climate Change in Australia Projections for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (available here).
    • CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, 2015: Climate Change in Australia Information for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Technical Report, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. Contributing author chapters 4 and 7 (available here).
    • Dowdy AJ, 2014: Long-term changes in Australian tropical cyclone numbers. Atmospheric Science Letters, doi:10.1002/asl2.502.
    • Dowdy AJ, Mills GA, Timbal B and Wang Y, 2014: Fewer large waves for eastern Australia due to decreasing storminess. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1002./jgrd.50852.
    • Dowdy AJ and Kuleshov Y, 2014: Lightning climatology of Australia: temporal and spatial variability. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 64, 103-108 (available here).
    • Dowdy AJ, Mills GA, Timbal B, Griffiths M and Wang Y, 2013: Understanding rainfall projections in relation to extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 63(3), 355-364 (available here).
    • Dowdy AJ, Mills GA, Timbal B and Wang Y, 2013: Changes in the risk of extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia. Journal of Climate, 26, 1403-1417, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00192.1.
    • Dowdy AJ, Mills GA, Timbal B, and Bates B, 2013: Modelling the impact of climate change on the ignition of bushfires. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc.. MODSIM2013, 52p (available here).
    • Dowdy AJ, Mills GA and Timbal B, 2013: Large-scale diagnostics of extratropical cyclogenesis in eastern Australia. International Journal of Climatology, 10, 231802327, doi:10.1002/joc.3599.
    • Dowdy AJ and Mills GA, 2012: Atmospheric and fuel moisture characteristics associated with lightning-attributed fires. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 51, 2025-2037, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-11-0219.1.
    • Dowdy AJ and Mills GA, 2012: Characteristics of lightning-attributed fires in south-east Australia. Int. J. of Wildland Fire, 21, 521524, doi.org/10.1071/WF10145.
    • Dowdy AJ, Qi L, Jones D, Ramsay H, Fawcett R and Kuleshov Y, 2012: Tropical cyclone climatology of the South Pacific Ocean and its relationship to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 25, 6108-6122, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00647.1.
    • Dowdy AJ and Kuleshov Y, 2012: An analysis of tropical cyclone occurrence in the Southern Hemisphere derived from a new satellite-era dataset. Int. J. of Remote Sensing, 23(10), 7382-7397, doi:10.1080/01431161.2012.685986.
    • Dowdy AJ, Mills GA and Timbal B, 2011: Large-scale indicators of Australian East Coast Lows and associated extreme weather events. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia, CAWCR Technical Report No. 37 (available here).
    • Collins D, Sen Gupta A, Power S, Braganza K, Brown JN, Brown JR, Cai W, Church J, Colman R, Dowdy A, Durack P, Jones D, Kuchinke M, Kuleshov Y, Lorrey A, Lucas C, McGree S, McInnes K, Moise A, Muir L, Murphy B, Phipps SJ, Smith I, Tilbrook B and White N, 2011: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research. Volume 1: Regional Overview, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. Contributing author Chapter 2 "Climate of the Western Tropical Pacific and East Timor" and Chapter 3 "Observed Climate Variability and Trends" (available here).
    • Dowdy AJ, Finkele K, Mills GA and de Groot B, 2010: Index sensitivity analysis applied to the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index. Meteorological Applications, 17, 298-312, doi:10.1002/met.170.
    • Dowdy AJ, Mills GA and Timbal B, 2010: Diagnosing indicators of large-scale forcing of east-coast cyclogenesis. IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 11, 012003, doi:10.1088/1755-1315/11/1/012003.
    • Dowdy AJ and Mills GA, 2009: Atmospheric states associated with the ignition of lightning-attributed fires in southeast Australia. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia, CAWCR Technical Report No. 19 (available here).
    • Dowdy AJ and Mills GA, 2009: Predicting environments of dry lightning ignitions. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CAWCR Modelling Workshop 2009: Modelling & Understanding High Impact Weather, Docklands, Victoria, Australia (available here).
    • Dowdy AJ, Finkele K, Mills GA and de Groot B, 2009: Australian fire weather as represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia, CAWCR Technical Report No. 10 (available here).
    • Dowdy AJ, Vincent RA, Murphy D, Tsutsumi M, Igarashi K, Murayama Y, Singer W and Murphy D, 2007: Polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics, Part I: Mean wind and gravity wave climatologies. Journal of Geophysical Research, 12, D17104, doi:10.1029/2006JD008126.
    • Dowdy AJ, Vincent RA, Murphy D, Tsutsumi M, Igarashi K, Murayama Y, Singer W, Murphy DJ and Riggin DM, 2007: Polar mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics, Part II: The response to sudden stratospheric warmings. Journal of Geophysical Research, 12, D17105, doi:10.1029/2006JD008127.
    • Dowdy AJ, Vincent RA, Murphy D, Tsutsumi M, Riggin DM and Jarvis MJ, 2004: The large-scale dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere during the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming of 2002. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L14102, doi:10.1029/2004GL020282.
    • Kishore P, Namboothiri SP, Murayama Y, Vincent RA, Dowdy AJ, Murphy DJ and Watkins BJ, 2003: Further evidence of hemispheric differences in the MLT mean wind climatology: Simultaneous MF radar observations at Poker Flat (65°N, 147°W) and Davis (69°S, 78°E). Geophysical Research Letters, 30, doi:10.1029/2002GL016750.
    • Klekociuk AR, Lambert MM, Vincent RA and Dowdy AJ, 2003: First year of Rayleigh Lidar measurements of middle atmosphere temperatures over Davis, Antarctica. Advances in Space Research, 32, 771-776 doi:10.1016/S0273-1177(03)00421-6.
    • Dowdy AJ, Vincent RA, Igarashi K, Murayama Y and Murphy DJ, 2001: A comparison of mean winds and gravity wave activity in the northern and southern polar MLT. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, 1475-1478, doi:10.1029/2000GL012576.

    Education:

  • Ph.D. Thesis title 'Polar middle atmosphere dynamics', University of Adelaide, School of Chemistry and Physics, Discipline of Physics, 2005, Ref:12326 (available here).

  • Please note that the Disclaimers for the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO apply also to this site.
    index.php last modified Wednesday, 01st July, 2015 @ 10:13UTC | Site Map | www.cawcr.gov.au | © 2015