Verification of Poor Man's Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts of 24 h accumulated precipitation from Poor Man's Ensemble (PME), are verified on a daily basis against the Bureau's operational daily rainfall analysis. The 0.25-degree analysis is averaged onto the grid of the forecast, then probabilistic and deterministic verification methods are used to evaluate the forecasts. 90-day verification summaries are done for the Australian region, the tropical region (equatorward of 25S), and the mid-latitude region (poleward of 25S).  

90-day verification of ensemble precipitation forecasts

Valid date, time Poor Man's Ensemble
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Daily verification of ensemble precipitation forecasts

Valid date, time Poor Man's Ensemble
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Verification results for ensemble precipitation forecasts from earlier dates are available on request from Beth Ebert, Weather and Environmental Prediction program, CAWCR (x4688).