Ensemble precipitation verification

Verification of Poor Man's Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts of 24 h accumulated precipitation from Poor Man's Ensemble (PME), are verified on a daily basis against the Bureau's operational daily rainfall analysis. The 0.25-degree analysis is averaged onto the grid of the forecast, then probabilistic and deterministic verification methods are used to evaluate the forecasts. 90-day verification summaries are done for the Australian region, the tropical region (equatorward of 25S), and the mid-latitude region (poleward of 25S).

90-day verification of ensemble precipitation forecasts

Valid date, time	Poor Man's Ensemble
20120517 00	scores

Daily verification of ensemble precipitation forecasts

Valid date, time	Poor Man's Ensemble
20120517 00	maps scores
20120516 00	maps scores
20120515 00	maps scores
20120514 00	maps scores
20120513 00	maps scores
20120512 00	maps scores
20120511 00	maps scores
20120510 00	maps scores
20120509 00	maps scores
20120508 00	maps scores

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Verification results for ensemble precipitation forecasts from earlier dates are available on request from Beth Ebert, Weather and Environmental Prediction program, CAWCR (x4688).