Verification of Poor Man's Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

Forecasts of 24 h accumulated precipitation from Poor Man's Ensemble (PME), are verified on a daily basis against the Bureau's operational daily rainfall analysis. The 0.25-degree analysis is averaged onto the grid of the forecast, then probabilistic and deterministic verification methods are used to evaluate the forecasts. 90-day verification summaries are done for the Australian region, the tropical region (equatorward of 25S), and the mid-latitude region (poleward of 25S).  

90-day verification of ensemble precipitation forecasts

Valid date, time Poor Man's Ensemble
20140901 00 scores

Daily verification of ensemble precipitation forecasts

Valid date, time Poor Man's Ensemble
20140901 00 maps
scores
20140831 00 maps
scores
20140830 00 maps
scores
20140829 00 maps
scores
20140828 00 maps
scores
20140827 00 maps
scores
20140826 00 maps
scores
20140825 00 maps
scores
20140824 00 maps
scores
20140823 00 maps
scores

Back to About Rainfall

Verification results for ensemble precipitation forecasts from earlier dates are available on request from Beth Ebert, Weather and Environmental Prediction program, CAWCR (x4688).