Seminars - Collins St
CAWCR SEMINARS 2010
The venue is the seminar room (Floor 9, east side).
Seminars are run typically with duration
of 30 to 50 minutes + questions. Dates and times are shown. If you are a vistor to the Bureau, you need to register at reception in the foyer.
Emphasis is on work in progress. Partly because of this, the schedule is
susceptible to change.
To receive this information via email, simply send an
email to majordomo@bom.gov.au containing the single line in the body of the message: subscribe bmrc_seminars . If you want to stop receiving the email use: unsubscribe bmrc_seminars .
A PDF copy of all the presented seminars can be found at the "Find Seminar Presentation Documents..." link at the top of the page (available to BoM staff only). Seminars for previous years can be found at the "Goto list of BMRC seminars for ..." site at the top of the page. In addition, a list of actual videos from some previous seminars is held in the library and can be found on the
catalogue by entering Series: BMRC,
Format: Video. If you would like to have a talk videotaped please contact the
seminar coordinator. Note: as of 2005, it is standard practice for all seminars to be recorded as wmv movies,
provided the presenter agrees.
If you would like to know more details of coordinating seminars (if, for example,
you are hosting a visitor who will be giving a seminar and the regular seminar coordinator is not available),
have a look at the document, "Instructions for CAWCR Seminar Coordinator"
For further details contact the seminar coordinator,
Vaughan Barras, on 03 9669 4045, email
ABSTRACTS
Tuesday 9th February, 10:00am - 11:00am, Conference/Meeting Rooms, 9th floor east, 700 Collins St
CO2, ancient climates and the 20-21st century shift in the state of the atmosphere
Andrew Glikson
Australian National University
Canberra, ACT
The dominant greenhouse state of the atmosphere on the early Earth, interrupted by glacial periods at ~2.4-2.2 Ga and ~0.75-0.65 Ga (Snowball Earth, terminated by a build-up of CO2), Cambrian ~0.53 Ga, Ordovician ~0.44 Ga, late Devonian ~0.36 Ga, Permian ~0.33-0.27 Ga, minor Jurassic and Cretaceous glaciations, and the post-34 Ma glacial-interglacial state. The emergence of land vegetation in the late Silurian (~0.42 Ga), enhanced photosynthesis and weathering-related CO2-sequestration led to atmospheric oxygen enhancement through organic processing of CO2 and removal/burial of carbon. Mass extinctions of species at the end of the Devonian, Permian, Triassic and Cretaceous were associated with the effects of large asteroid impacts and volcanic events, triggering atmospheric CO2 and CH4 spikes and ocean acidification. Greenhouse events at 55 Ma, 15 Ma, and 2.8 Ma associated with peak atmospheric temperatures allow estimates of climate sensitivity under both greenhouse and glacial-interglacial Earth conditions. These include (1) Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (~55 Ma: escape of ~2000 GtC as methane, CO2 rise from 400 to 800 ppm, T rise ~ +5C; (2) Mid-Miocene (CO2 rise from ~280 to ~520 ppm; T rise ~ +2.4C), suggesting a climate sensitivity of about 2.8oC per-doubling of CO2 (CS); (3) mid-Pliocene (CO2 rise to ~400 ppm and T rise ~2C to 3C). Estimates based on the last glacial termination (180-280 ppm CO2; T ~ +4.5C) yield high CS value of ~6 to 8C associated with an ice melt feedback loop ahead of CO2 rise. Climate sensitivity estimates from the 18th century (for CO2 rise of 280 to 388 ppm and mean global temperature rise of +0.8oC plus ~ +0.5oC currently masked by sulphur aerosols) yields CS value of ~3.4 oC, not accounting for the effects of current albedo loss due to melting cryosphere and methane release from permafrost and bogs.
Figure 1 (pdf)
Friday 19th February, 10:00am - 11:00am, Conference/Meeting Rooms, 9th floor east, 700 Collins St
Exploiting long-term wind and solar observations to inform the energy industry
Alberto Troccoli
CSIRO
A large network of approximately 500 stations for wind observations is available over Australia. Some records go as far back as the 1920s, with a large proportion starting in the 1950s. However, as found by Muirhead (2000) and Jakob (2010) there are several issues to be considered when analysing these data. Here the objective is to investigate the relationships between the main climate modes in Australia - ENSO and IOD - and the interannual variations in wind energy. Such relationships would provide the potential for improving the planning and operation of wind farms in Australia from the wind-power and economic viewpoints. However, before delving into these relationships, a careful selection of the data had to be carried out. The factors taken into account include location, proximity to obstructions, length of continuous data record, and data quality (removing the sudden steps in the data caused by changes in instrumentation, etc.). Preliminary results in the relationship between ENSO and station wind observations are discussed. An analogous investigation is also undertaken using the less abundant and shorter array of solar radiation observations. Reanalysis data are also examined in order to provide a more robust analysis.
References:
Jakob D (2010) "Challenges in developing a high-quality wind data set for Australia", to be submitted to Aust. Met. Mag.
Muirhead I (2000) "Applications for Climate Data in Renewable Energy" Proceedings of the ANZSES Solar 2000 Conference, 29 Nov - 1 Dec 2000, Brisbane, Australia.
Thursday 11th March, 2:30pm - 3:30pm, Conference Rooms 1 & 2, 6th floor, 700 Collins St
A retrospective of my years in the Bureau, 1959-2009
Robert Seaman
CAWCR (ret.)
"The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there."
I shall cover the period from 1959 to 2009, from the perspective of where I was in
the Bureau at the time. The talk will be mainly impressionistic. There won't be much
detailed science, and I promise no equations or fancy powerpoint graphics. My
overheads will be mainly dot points for each period, and quotes. I shall mention
a few of the people I have encountered along the way who have influenced me
substantially. I shall also try to summarise some of the lessons I have learnt.
PDF copy of slides || WMV presentation
Friday 19th March, 10:00am - 11:00am, Conference/Meeting Rooms, 9th floor east, 700 Collins St
The non-existence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Mode
Dietmar Dommenget
Monash University
Current research of Indian Ocean SST variability focus on the tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Mode, which were motivated by the Saji et al. [1999] and Webster [1999] articles about an IOD Mode independent of ENSO. The presentation will critically discuss the evidence for the IOD mode based on three different arguments:
1) Objective analysis of the spatial structure of Indian Ocean SST variability.
2) The conceptual Bjerknes feedbacks are analysed in the context of the ENSO recharge oscillator.
3) Predictability of Indian Ocean SST indices are study in state of the art coupled general circulation forecast systems and in a simple statistical model forced with ENSO.
The talk will conclude with a description of the truly important structures of Indian Ocean SST modes.
